The Halifax said that house prices rose by 2.2% in December, compared with a weak November, although the month-on-month change is widely considered to be a volatile measure of the UK housing market.
A comparison of the final three months of the 2018 with the previous quarter recorded a 0.4% fall in house prices, based on the Halifax’s lending data.
Over the year as a whole, prices rose by 1.3% – within the lender’s prediction at the start of the year of a rise of up to 3%.
The Nationwide, a rival lender, reported last week that its lending data had shown house prices rising by 0.5% in 2018 – the lowest level on this annual measure for nearly six years. It said uncertainty over the economic outlook appeared to be undermining confidence in the market.
The year-on-year comparison is calculated slightly differently by the two lenders. The Halifax compares the previous three months with the same three months a year earlier to give a smoother comparison, rather than a direct comparison of the equivalent months as calculated by the Nationwide.
Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent, said the Halifax figures looked surprising at first glance at a time of political uncertainty, but there were clear reasons in the state of the market.
“When taken with the recent fall in transactions, it is clear that the increase has more to do with a shortage of stock rather than a bounce back in the market generally,” he said.
Russell Galley, managing director of the Halifax, said that the lender was predicting that prices would rise by between 2% and 4% in 2019.
“This is slightly stronger than 2018, but still fairly subdued by modern comparisons. However, this expectation will clearly be dependent on the Brexit outcome, with risks to both sides of our forecast,” he said.
Your results
–
Amount of the United Kingdom that has housing you can afford
Range of affordable areas includes: Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon and Belfast
No affordable areas
Search the UK for more details about a local area
You have a big enough deposit and your monthly payments are high enough.
The prices are based on the local market. If there are 100 properties of the right size in an area and they are placed in price order with the cheapest first, the “low-end” of the market will be the 25th property, “mid-priced” is the 50th and “high-end” will be the 75th.